Tuesday, September 29, 2009
QCOM
QCOM - Looking to buy the 11/46 Call for 1.95 or less. Now trading at 2.20 x 2.22. Futures up so may not get in right away but later today. In a tight trading range so may not move down too much.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Recovery?
Will the housing recovery continue? The $8000 1st time home buyers credit ends 11/30. So all the 1st time buyers buying homes allowed the owners of the bought home to trade up but will that continue after the tax credit expires? Was the real estate market artificially stimulated or will the demand continue after 11/30? Interest rates are low but will that translate into continued housing sales?
The cash for clunkers program is over. Will auto sales continue up or will they fall? Will there be demand in the spring or was future demand used up by the cash for clunkers program?
Where is consumer spending? Articles I read suggest that the consumer is saving not spending. If the consumer is not the foundation for this recovery, how can the recovery continue? How can the economy have a sustained recovery without housing and autos i.e. consumer spending.
Artificial stimulation cannot continue forever. The consumer must begin spending or the recovery is going to stall. If that happens, auto sales, housing sales and retail sales will fall. Stocks associated with spending will fall.
Consumer spending will not increase until consumers know that they will have a job in 3 months, 6 months etc. Employment is the key to consumer spending. Today I read there are 6 applicants for each job opening. That means if one is hired, 5 are not. Consumer spending is not going to increase until consumer confidence returns and that is tied to the job market and being hired or not being laid off.
The cash for clunkers program is over. Will auto sales continue up or will they fall? Will there be demand in the spring or was future demand used up by the cash for clunkers program?
Where is consumer spending? Articles I read suggest that the consumer is saving not spending. If the consumer is not the foundation for this recovery, how can the recovery continue? How can the economy have a sustained recovery without housing and autos i.e. consumer spending.
Artificial stimulation cannot continue forever. The consumer must begin spending or the recovery is going to stall. If that happens, auto sales, housing sales and retail sales will fall. Stocks associated with spending will fall.
Consumer spending will not increase until consumers know that they will have a job in 3 months, 6 months etc. Employment is the key to consumer spending. Today I read there are 6 applicants for each job opening. That means if one is hired, 5 are not. Consumer spending is not going to increase until consumer confidence returns and that is tied to the job market and being hired or not being laid off.
9/21 Week Recap
Monday - Suggested OXY 11/70-11/75 Put Spread at 1.45. Hit the 1.45 price on Monday but didn't stay there long enough for me to get in. There were too many orders ahead of me. It hit 1.92 on Thursday. Gain of .47 per contract (10 contracts = 470)
Tuesday - Bid WMT 11/52.50 call at 1.05 or less and picked it up for 1.03. It moved away from my price, however, November is far enough away for it to rebound especially with holidays approaching and consumers needing to buy candy, food, decorations etc.
Wednesday - Did not see any good trades.
Thursday - Suggested CVX 11/70 Put at 2.25. Never dropped that low but did see 2.50 and a high of 3.00 for a .50 gain on 1 contract or 500 on 10 contracts.
Friday - Suggested BHI for 2.10. It barely moved from the bid of 2.35, so I did not get in.
Tuesday - Bid WMT 11/52.50 call at 1.05 or less and picked it up for 1.03. It moved away from my price, however, November is far enough away for it to rebound especially with holidays approaching and consumers needing to buy candy, food, decorations etc.
Wednesday - Did not see any good trades.
Thursday - Suggested CVX 11/70 Put at 2.25. Never dropped that low but did see 2.50 and a high of 3.00 for a .50 gain on 1 contract or 500 on 10 contracts.
Friday - Suggested BHI for 2.10. It barely moved from the bid of 2.35, so I did not get in.
OXY
Watching the OXY 11/75 (Buy) and 11/80 (Sell) Call Spread. Technicals look like it is ready to pop and was upgraded by Goldman on Friday. Would bid at 2.10 or less.
Friday, September 25, 2009
BHI - Baker Hughes
BHI (42.24) - Watching the 11/41 put trading at 2.35 x 2.50. May bid at = <2.10. Techs look like it is overbought and want to stay close to the stock price for a put.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
CVX, MA
CVX - Watching the 11/70 put trading at 2.55 x 2.65. May buy at = <2.25. They filed a claim against Ecuador and the dollar rallied against world currencies.
MA - Watching the 11/210 - 220 put spread trading at $4.10 x 4.80. May bid at = <3.60. It looks like it has a little more room to run up so it may be a little early. It might be best to wait a day or two.
Credit card defaults up to record levels in August. Consumers are debt adverse. Write offs up in August. Loans over 30 days past due rose to 5.8%. Hungary fined them $2.6 million for fixing fees.
It's hard to see a recovery without consumer spending increasing. 4th Quarter should show signs of consumer spending more (Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas spending - food, gifts, decorations etc,), otherwise the recovery may stall.
MA - Watching the 11/210 - 220 put spread trading at $4.10 x 4.80. May bid at = <3.60. It looks like it has a little more room to run up so it may be a little early. It might be best to wait a day or two.
Credit card defaults up to record levels in August. Consumers are debt adverse. Write offs up in August. Loans over 30 days past due rose to 5.8%. Hungary fined them $2.6 million for fixing fees.
It's hard to see a recovery without consumer spending increasing. 4th Quarter should show signs of consumer spending more (Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas spending - food, gifts, decorations etc,), otherwise the recovery may stall.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
WMT
Walmart - WMT
Watching the 11/52.50 call trading at .94 x .96. WMT trading up so will bid 1.05 to get in early. WMT should do well when other retailers don't. Between Halloween (candy) and Thanksgiving (food, decorations etc) and early Christmas shopping, the price should rise.
Watching the 11/52.50 call trading at .94 x .96. WMT trading up so will bid 1.05 to get in early. WMT should do well when other retailers don't. Between Halloween (candy) and Thanksgiving (food, decorations etc) and early Christmas shopping, the price should rise.
Monday, September 21, 2009
OXY
Watching the 11/70 -11/75 Put spread. May buy the 11/75 and sell the 11/70 for $1.45 or less. May drop faster than I can get in.
See Friday's post - FDX never hit my price but did get to $1.37 for a low and $1.55 for a high (.18 gain or $18.00 per contract, 10 contracts = $180).
BIIB never hit my price but did get to $1.60 for a low and $1.90 for a high (.30 gain or $30.00 per contract, 10 contracts = $300).
See Friday's post - FDX never hit my price but did get to $1.37 for a low and $1.55 for a high (.18 gain or $18.00 per contract, 10 contracts = $180).
BIIB never hit my price but did get to $1.60 for a low and $1.90 for a high (.30 gain or $30.00 per contract, 10 contracts = $300).
Friday, September 18, 2009
BIIB, FDX
FEDEX: FDX
I am watching the 10/75 put trading at 2.35 x 2.45. The put spread of buy the 10/75 and selling the 10/70 is cheaper trading at 1.30 x 1.50. Would like to buy the put spread at 1.30 or less.
Biogen: BIIB
I am watching the 10/50 put trading at 1.55 x 1.65. Would like to buy at 1.40 or less.
This market reads overbought but keeps going up yet consumer spending is down. Is this irrational exuberance? Are we brushing aside negative news such as Oracle and FDX etc?
I am watching the 10/75 put trading at 2.35 x 2.45. The put spread of buy the 10/75 and selling the 10/70 is cheaper trading at 1.30 x 1.50. Would like to buy the put spread at 1.30 or less.
Biogen: BIIB
I am watching the 10/50 put trading at 1.55 x 1.65. Would like to buy at 1.40 or less.
This market reads overbought but keeps going up yet consumer spending is down. Is this irrational exuberance? Are we brushing aside negative news such as Oracle and FDX etc?
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
TEVA, BHI
Don't see any good trades today.
Yesterday, TEVA hit a low of $.62 and a high of $1.10 for a gain of $.48 or $48.00 per contract (10 contracts = $480). It did not hit my bid of .55 so it didn't go through.
Monday BHI hit a low of $1.85 and a high of $2.55. Pretty good profit if you got in at $1.85. 10 contracts x 100 x .70 = $700). Not bad if you got in at $2.00 or less either.
Yesterday, TEVA hit a low of $.62 and a high of $1.10 for a gain of $.48 or $48.00 per contract (10 contracts = $480). It did not hit my bid of .55 so it didn't go through.
Monday BHI hit a low of $1.85 and a high of $2.55. Pretty good profit if you got in at $1.85. 10 contracts x 100 x .70 = $700). Not bad if you got in at $2.00 or less either.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
TEVA
TEVA Pharmaceuticals
TEVA
I'm looking at the 10/50 put trading at .60 x .65. Techs look like it might go lower. May try to buy the 10/50 put at .55 or lower.
Yesterday the BHI Call hit a low of $1.85 and a high of $2.55. See yesterday's post.
TEVA
I'm looking at the 10/50 put trading at .60 x .65. Techs look like it might go lower. May try to buy the 10/50 put at .55 or lower.
Yesterday the BHI Call hit a low of $1.85 and a high of $2.55. See yesterday's post.
Monday, September 14, 2009
BHI
Baker Hughes
I'm watching BHI. Technicals look good for a pop. I can't find any recent bad news. Futures are down so call prices should drop. I like the 10/37 call trading at $2.10 x $2.20. Might enter at $1.90 or less.
I'm watching BHI. Technicals look good for a pop. I can't find any recent bad news. Futures are down so call prices should drop. I like the 10/37 call trading at $2.10 x $2.20. Might enter at $1.90 or less.
Friday, September 11, 2009
SHLD
The 10/60 Put is 2.70 x 2.80.
The Put Spread of 10/60 and 10/65 is 2.30 x 2.60.
The Put Spread is safer and cheaper. Looking at buying the 10/65 put and selling the 10/60 put as a put spread for a price of 2.25 or less.
The Holiday season does not look good for retailers. I was in Kmart the other day and they only had 2 cashiers and there were 3 or 4 people in each line waiting to pay. It appears some of the retailers are understaffed to save money. Technicals are turning bearish on Sears.
The Put Spread of 10/60 and 10/65 is 2.30 x 2.60.
The Put Spread is safer and cheaper. Looking at buying the 10/65 put and selling the 10/60 put as a put spread for a price of 2.25 or less.
The Holiday season does not look good for retailers. I was in Kmart the other day and they only had 2 cashiers and there were 3 or 4 people in each line waiting to pay. It appears some of the retailers are understaffed to save money. Technicals are turning bearish on Sears.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
BA, GENZ
BA:
Looking at Call Spread and trying to buy the 10/50 call and selling the 10/55 call for a price of $1.60 or less.
GENZ:
Looking to buy the 10/50 put for .90 or less.
Closed my position on FDX. Bought 9/8 for $1.60 and sold 9/9 for $2.25 = gain of .65which is $65.00 per contract (1 x 100 x .65).
Looking at Call Spread and trying to buy the 10/50 call and selling the 10/55 call for a price of $1.60 or less.
GENZ:
Looking to buy the 10/50 put for .90 or less.
Closed my position on FDX. Bought 9/8 for $1.60 and sold 9/9 for $2.25 = gain of .65which is $65.00 per contract (1 x 100 x .65).
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
AMZN
AMZN looks like it is ready to pop. Looking at the October call spread to buy the 10/80 and sell the 10/85 at a bid of $2.00 or less. I can't find any bad news. Close when it turns green.
Picked up the FDX 10/75 call yesterday for $1.60 and current price is $1.90. I will close sometime today.
Picked up the FDX 10/75 call yesterday for $1.60 and current price is $1.90. I will close sometime today.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
AAPL, FDX
Watching AAPL 10/175 call @$5.45 x $5.50. The 10/170 - 175 call spread looks better @$2.25 x $2.35. May try to buy the 170 and sell the 175 for $2.00 or less.
Watching FDX 10/75 call at $1.80 x$1.90. May try to buy for $1.65 or less
Watching FDX 10/75 call at $1.80 x$1.90. May try to buy for $1.65 or less
Friday, September 4, 2009
RIMM, AZO
Today I am looking at calls on RIMM and AZO. I expect to get a bounce from both. RIMM is expanding overseas and AZO sells parts for cars and people are going to continue to fix the old rather than buy the new. Technicals look good for a turn up soon.
RIMM:
Call Spread: Buy the 10/80 and sell the 10/85 calls for a bid of $1.30
AZO:
Call Spread: Buy the 10/150 and sell the 10/155 calls for a bid of $1.85
I'm not sure I will do both but if I do one or both, I plan to close any trade as soon as it turns green (Profit). These are 1 to 5 day trades only.
RIMM:
Call Spread: Buy the 10/80 and sell the 10/85 calls for a bid of $1.30
AZO:
Call Spread: Buy the 10/150 and sell the 10/155 calls for a bid of $1.85
I'm not sure I will do both but if I do one or both, I plan to close any trade as soon as it turns green (Profit). These are 1 to 5 day trades only.
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